(And some thoughts on whether we should freak out)
No doubt your feeds, like mine, have been inundated with news and pontification about COVID-19, aka coronavirus.
And no doubt the items that most catch your eye are the extreme ones: on the one hand, people panic-buying loo paper; on the other hand, people comparing COVID-19 to the flu to show that it's no big deal.
Humans are extraordinarily bad at assessing risk. But this is exactly the kind of situation where we need to be disciplined about it. We can't afford not to be.
This update is in two parts:
Is COVID-19 actually a big deal? (Spoiler: Yes)
Should you freak out? (Spoiler: No, but you should take action)
Let's dive in.
Is COVID-19 actually a big deal?
As I write this, we've passed 113,000 confirmed cases worldwide, with more than 62,000 recovered and around 4,000 deaths. The number of actual cases is likely much higher. The virus is in 111 countries or regions.
So what? I'm sure we've all seen posts comparing those numbers to the number of people who get the flu every year, or who die from cancer or diabetes. But the critical thing to be looking at is not the current number of cases. It's the transmission rate.
In the case of COVID-19, the transmission rate, or R0, is estimated to be around 2-3. This means that every person infected is likely to infect 2-3 additional people.
And that means we're dealing with an exponential curve. (If you haven't heard me present on exponentials before, you can start here.)
Here's today's report from the World Health Organisation on the confirmed cases reported outside of China (n=28 674).
The epidemic curve of confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported outside of China
Does that hockey stick look familiar?
If transmission of COVID-19 continues exponentially, we could be looking at infections in the tens of millions, hundreds of millions, or more. Read Our World In Data's summary of this growth curve here.
That exponential curve is why China and Italy have shut down. It's why airline capacity and stock markets are plunging. Not because 4,000 people have died, but because of the trajectory of the virus.
Please be aware that it is highly uncertain whether the transmission rate will continue to be exponential. As Our World In Data say, "The doubling time in a disease outbreak is not constant and for the outbreak of COVID-19 it has changed in recent weeks and will continue to change with time."
So should you freak out?
Here is a useful, two-question algorithm to determine whether you should freak out:
Do I have the data I need to freak out? Maybe, but...
Will freaking out help? No, it will not.
Hoarding face masks prevents them from getting to the front-line workers who need them most. Getting into fistfights over toilet paper means... well, that you're in a fistfight over toilet paper. Panicking causes us to make bad decisions, and this is precisely a time when we need to be making good decisions.
The kind of good decisions we're after are those that help us flatten the curve, thereby avoiding overloading our healthcare system. This explainer by Dr Siouxsie Wiles, with illustrations from Toby Morris, is essential reading.
Flatten The Curve
So what should we do?
Wash your hands for the full 20 seconds — or, as the city of Round Rock, Texas, says, "like you just got done slicing jalapeños for a batch of nachos and you need to take your contacts out."
TRY to keep your hands away from your face. We know. It's super hard. Try.
Practice social distancing. Try to keep a metre apart in social situations. Avoid crowds where you're forced into closer contact. Try not to kiss and hug socially.
Practice social support. Reach out to friends and family who are elderly or immunocompromised. Be helpful if you can!
Plan, plan, plan. If you have any trips, events, parties, weddings, etc coming up, be prepared for them to not go ahead. Be thinking through the impact on your business if the virus continues to spread, and be ready with your Plans B, C and D.
Boma Global is planning a free virtual conference on COVID-19 on Monday, 23 March. We'll be sending an update to our mailing list; to make sure you’re in the loop, add yourself to the list here.
Kia ora (literally, "be healthy"),
Kaila
Kaila Colbin, Certified Dare to Lead™ Facilitator
Co-founder, Boma Global // CEO, Boma NZ
